2000 CPBL Projections
|
|
Totals
|
Team |
Offense |
Pitching |
Total |
| BigCat's Bleacher Bums | 44 | 47 | 91 |
| Eve Of Destruction | 32 | 39 | 71 |
| Invisible Men | 43 | 20.5 | 63.5 |
| James Gang | 33 | 29.5 | 62.5 |
| Long Shots | 49 | 13.5 | 62.5 |
| Underdogs | 36 | 22 | 58 |
| Noble Dragons | 44 | 10 | 54 |
| Rock Heads | 25.5 | 28 | 53.5 |
| Show Me The Money | 19 | 33.5 | 52.5 |
| Bronx Bombers | 17 | 30.5 | 47.5 |
| Hot Damn Tamales | 21.5 | 23.5 | 45 |
| Freaks On A Leash | 26 | 15 | 41 |
Offense
| HR | R | RBI | AVG. | SB | Total | |
| Long Shots | 270 (12) | 852 (10) | 879 (12) | .294 (12) | 100 (3) | 49 |
| Noble Dragons | 245 (11) | 928 (12) | 860 (11) | .289 (8) | 94 (2) | 44 |
| BigCat's Bleacher Bums | 211 (7) | 878 (11) | 767 (6) | .292 (11) | 125 (9) | 44 |
| Invisible Men | 233 (9) | 797 (7) | 845 (10) | .291 (10) | 116 (7) | 43 |
| Underdogs | 194 (3) | 830 (9) | 750 (4) | .290 (9) | 160 (11) | 36 |
| James Gang | 200 (5) | 803 (8) | 742 (3) | .286 (7) | 145 (10) | 33 |
| Eve Of Destruction | 235 (10) | 776 (5) | 822 (9) | .281 (4) | 109 (4) | 32 |
| Freaks On A Leash | 214 (8) | 753 (3) | 763 (5) | .277 (2) | 119 (8) | 26 |
| Rock Heads | 193 (2) | 793 (6) | 775 (7) | .285 (5.5) | 113 (5) | 25.5 |
| Hot Damn Tamales | 198 (4) | 772 (4) | 708 (2) | .285 (5.5) | 114 (6) | 21.5 |
| Show Me The Money | 153 (1) | 746 (2) | 685 (1) | .280 (3) | 162 (12) | 19 |
| Bronx Bombers | 203 (6) | 665 (1) | 777 (8) | .269 (1) | 52 (1) | 17 |
Pitching
| W | S | ERA | WHIP | Total | |
| BigCat's Bleacher Bums | 69 (12) | 79 (11) | 3.35 (12) | 1.205 (12) | 47 |
| Eve Of Destruction | 61 (8) | 92 (12) | 3.62 (9) | 1.244 (10) | 39 |
| Show Me The Money | 63 (9) | 63 (6.5) | 3.59 (10) | 1.253 (8) | 33.5 |
| Bronx Bombers | 65 (10.5) | 43 (2) | 3.44 (11) | 1.269 (7) | 30.5 |
| James Gang | 59 (7) | 62 (4.5) | 3.74 (7) | 1.242 (11) | 29.5 |
| Rock Heads | 45 (2) | 75 (9) | 3.72 (8) | 1.249 (9) | 28 |
| Hot Damn Tamales | 65 (10.5) | 76 (10) | 4.15 (2) | 1.355 (1) | 23.5 |
| Underdogs | 58 (6) | 67 (8) | 4.02 (4) | 1.325 (4) | 22 |
| Invisible Men | 56 (5) | 62 (4.5) | 3.87 (6) | 1.293 (5) | 20.5 |
| Freaks On A Leash | 42 (1) | 55 (3) | 3.90 (5) | 1.276 (6) | 15 |
| Long Shots | 50 (3) | 63 (6.5) | 4.09 (1) | 1.331 (3) | 13.5 |
| Noble Dragons | 54 (4) | 37 (1) | 4.05 (3) | 1.347 (2) | 10 |
* These projections are based on a network of common-sense formulas -- quasi-scientific, you can call them -- which essentially assume that a player will continue to perform in a manner consistent with his past performance, modified somewhat by age, experience and any change in ballparks. These formulas aren't going to pick out next year's Jay Bell, Luis Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Jose Lima, Todd Ritchie, or Kent Bottenfield, and they tend to project what the player will do absent from injury, and thus to project more games played for a team as a whole than are actually available. But as long as a player has a normal season or a season which reflects normal growth or normal decline, we are going to be pretty close. Normally.
The system we use to project the performance of position players was developed years ago by John Dewan and Bill James. At its heart, it's not a complicated thing. We look at what a guy has done in the past, and generally assume that's about what he'll do in the future. There complicating factors of course, the most important of which is age. We have an advantage with younger players, in that we've got a pretty solid technique for predicting how a minor league hitter will do in the majors.
The pitcher projection system was designed by John Dewan and Mike Canter. It's a bit dicier with pitchers, because of they're a fragile, unpredictable lot.
First of all, we don't even bother trying to project hurlers unless they've pitched 500 innings or 150 games, because we haven't been able to figure out a way to evaluate minor league performance to our satisfaction. For those pitchers we don't project, we've created an average of the pitcher's career performance and pro-rated it by his actual usage in 1998. Those pitchers who don't have projections are marked with an asterisk.
Another problem: pitchers are more prone to injury than position players. So even though we're convinced that our projections for pitchers are the most accurate you'll see, we urge you to take them with a healthy dose of salt.